Understanding the Problem: A Dozen Factors Pushing Peak Oil
Someday, world oil production on our planet will "peak" -- output will reach an all-time high. Thereafter, a growing population will have less oil to burn. This event is not speculation; it is a matter of when -- not if. The drivers toward the eventual peak are reflected below. Timing of the peak will be affected by: geologic limits, politics, business cycles, wars and revolutions, application of technology, industry infrastructure such as pipelines, ships, etc. What happens after the peak -- the social, economic and political consequences -- will be driven by decisions and investments made now -- at the household, local, state, national and international level.
What can be done to contribute toward the mitigation of this looming issue?
1. Two important figures.
Return to Table of Contents
Today, the World consumes 84 million barrels of petroleum per day. Think of a river, like the Colorado flowing through Glenwood Springs (CO) in July.
Today, the US consumes 21 million barrels of petroleum per day? 25% of the world's total.
2. Oil field development results in a production peak and then decline.
Professional athletes perform best when they are young. They grow smarter with experience to offset aging. Finally their performance declines. Oil fields "perform" in the same manner, peaking and then depleting over time.
Most super-giant oil fields today qualify as "middle-aged."
3. U.S. oil production peaked in 1970.
When all of a nation's oil resources are aggregated, the nation's total production eventually peaks. The U.S. peaked 35 years ago. Developing Prudhoe Bay, the largest field in our history, only slowed the eventual rate of decline; drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) will have less impact. It is smaller and likely to be more difficult to develop. Today's improved technology cannot offset the accelerating depletion of "mature" oil fields.
4. Discovery declines - then production declines.
Worldwide oil discovery peaked during the 1960s. Today only 1/3 as much new oil is discovered as consumed annually.
5. Explosions: Population verses Vehicles
Between 1950 and 2005, world population more than doubled to 6 billion. U.S. and world vehicles bred like rabbits, increasing 10 times.
Currently there are approximately 235 million on-road vehicles in the U.S. and 800 million total vehicles worldwide.
Oil scarcity is a liquids problem today.
6. Additional oil discoveries defer "PEAK OIL" a few years
Experts disagree over how much new oil is waiting to be discovered. Based on the current growth in petroleum demand, increasing the rate of discovery by 40% only delays the peak by 15 years! Peak timing will not be significantly impacted without a drastic reduction or elimination in the growth in demand for oil.
7. Transportation accounts for approximately 70% of U.S. oil use.
Transportation dominates U.S. oil consumption. Continued growth simply can't go on. Change will come, either by: 1) choice, 2) sensible new policy initiatives, or 3) harsh "price rationing".
8. World's 20 largest oil consumers
| |
Nation |
Million barls/d |
2004 % increase |
Per cap. vs. U.S. |
| 1 |
USA |
20.5 |
2.8% |
100% |
| 2 |
China |
6.68 |
15.8% |
10% |
| 3 |
Japan |
5.29 |
-3.0% |
62% |
| 4 |
Germany |
2.63 |
0.9% |
49% |
| 5 |
Russia |
2.57 |
3.1% |
26% |
| 6 |
India |
2.56 |
5.5% |
3% |
| 7 |
S. Korea |
2.28 |
-0.8% |
70% |
| 8 |
Canada |
2.21 |
3.9% |
97% |
| 9 |
France |
1.98 |
0.9% |
48% |
| 10 |
Mexico |
1.90 |
1.8% |
26% |
| 11 |
Italy |
1.87 |
-2.8% |
49% |
| 12 |
Brazil |
1.83 |
2.7% |
14% |
| 13 |
U.K. |
1.76 |
2.4% |
41% |
| 14 |
S.Arabia |
1.73 |
6.6% |
80% |
| 15 |
Spain |
1.59 |
2.8% |
57% |
| 16 |
Iran |
1.55 |
5.1% |
25% |
| 17 |
Indonesia |
1.15 |
1.4% |
7% |
| 18 |
Thailand |
0.91 |
9.2% |
20% |
| 19 |
Taiwan |
0.88 |
0.9% |
57% |
| 20 |
Australia |
0.86 |
1.3% |
62% |
| TOTAL: |
63 |
(78% of world total) |
(BP Statatistical Review of World Energy, 2004 data)
9. Demand -- the "China Factor"
Partial data from 2004 indicate Chinese thirst for oil grew 16%. Data from the Oil & Gas Journal indicate that U.S. demand grew 700,000 barrels per day -- almost as much as China's growth.
10. "Super-team producers"
Three nations dominate oil production, extracting 1/3 of the world's daily total. Once those three peak, the world peaks. Keep your eye on Saudi Arabia.
11. The A-Team -- the world's 15 largest oil producers -- pump out 77% daily production
Italics = already reached peak.
Underlined = at or near peak production.
Dashed = 2025 Fantasy
12. The B-team producers
55 other nations produce the world's leftovers (23%). Oil production is increasing in half of those countries: Libya, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Syria and Chad. These increases are more than offset by declining daily oil from post-peak Argentina, Australia, Columbia, Indonesia and Oman.
User Comments:
No comments added
Add your comment
Fill out the fields below:
|
