A desperate need exists for investments to mitigate the pitfalls of peak oil. The less time remaining before daily oil production peaks, plateaus, then declines, the more urgent the need to act.

Searching for silver bullets to slay this dragon is misleading.

Oil makes up 38% of the world's commercial energy consumption. It's fluid nature and high energy density -- make it our most flexible energy resource. It is black magic.

1. The "Silver Bullet" Trap

Despite proponents' claims, oil replacements on the horizon aren't capable of doing what oil does for us today.

Instead of searching for silver bullets, focus on the silver BB's

View options with "energy glasses" and be a harsh realist:

How much transportation service could be supplied by the alternative fuel? Consider in terms of today's liquid fuel use, either as millions of barrels a day of new supply, or the same amount of fuel use avoided (demand reduction).

What's the projected timetable for the arrival of the alternative supply (or demand reduction)?

What would the projected price be?

What is the net energy contribution of any new fuel option? Examine the ratio of energy inputs to energy outputs. This is referred to the "energy-profit ratio" [EPR] or energy-returned on energy invested [EROEI].

What are the political, economic, environmental and technological barriers to the alternative fuel's wide spread use (or avoided demand)?

2. The unconventional oil cavalry?

"Unconventional oil" -- from Canadian tar sands, Venezuela's heavy oil or even shale from the Colorado Plateau -- is dug or "melted" out of the ground. Enormous energy inputs go into this extraction process. The flow rate of production is more akin to hard-rock mining than fluid dynamics. These resources will slow, but not reverse, the rate of decline after world oil peaks.

3. Vehicle efficiency

Vehicle efficiency is our 'societal slam-dunk' mitigating action. However, replacing the auto fleet is an excruciatingly slow task. Five years into the hybrid vehicle process, 235,000 hybrids cruise U.S. roadways. That's 0.1%. New-vehicles sales of hybrids this year is expected to be at close to 1%. This is a very slow rate of change.

4. Bio-fuels

Based on Energy Profit Ratio (EPR), ethanol from corn (1:1.35 to 1:1.6) is a dead-end. Cellulose-based rather than grain-based biofuels demonstrate consistently better EPR's (Brazil study). Research indicates switch-grass offers a better energy return.

Consider the total availability of non-corn biofuels today!

5. Coal, nuclear, solar and wind?

Near term, replacing oil means vehicle fill-ups with a different liquid.

When "pluggable" hybrid vehicles hit the market, the role electricity generation can play in offsetting oil consumption will increase.

Electricity from:

Coal - is the ultimate climate-change bad actor and, while more plentiful than oil, is non-renewable.

Nuclear fuel - is depleting, its lethal by-products last many thousands of years

Wind and solar - generate power on nature's intermittent schedules, not necessarily when needed. They are renewable, work well today, and are increasing in use.

6. Hydrogen

Daimler-Chrysler announced in 1998 that 100,000 hydrogen-fueled fuel-cell-powered vehicles would grace their showroom floors by 2004. Enormous technical barriers, particularly negative EROEI numbers, make it unlikely that H₂ will offset oil consumption before 2020.

H₂ is an energy carrier, not a fuel.

7. We can act, we must act

Our response to World War II showed we are capable of swift and decisive action when threatened. Failure to respond rigorously could lead to what some analysts call, rather clinically, "substantial economic disruptions in the years ahead".

The impact of smart prudent action today will be orders of magnitude better than reaction later.

A filter for evaluating Alternative Fuels

"There are no silver bullets, only silver BB's"

1. How much fuel will be available?

• World oil consumption is 84 million barrels per day (mmb/day); US consumption is 21 mmb/day; and the US transportation sector consumes 14 mmb/day.

• The answer should be in millions of barrels of oil/equivalent per day. (MMBOE)

• To matter, the minimum threshold for an alternative fuel should be a tenth of a MMBOE (100,000 barrels per day). There are 42 gallons in an oil barrel.

2. When will the fuel be available?

• World oil production is likely to peak within the next 10 years; time is of essence.

• How many MMBOE/day by today; by 2010; by 2015; by 2020.

3. How does the alternative fuel's net-energy balance compare to that of oil? How many barrels of fuel are produced per barrel of input?

4. Is the fuel partly or fully renewable?

5. Are there political barriers to be overcome for this alternative fuel to play its projected role?

6. What technical and user barriers exist? New vehicle technology needed? Battery breakthrough? Fuel density?

7. What financial barriers? Are the financial requirements large? Cost of infrastructure? Cost of fuels? Cost of vehicles?

8. What infrastructure barriers? New pipelines? New refueling infrastructure?

9. What environmental issues are associated with this fuel's development?

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